Still no basketball insights. But sure 1-0 to you in Quad 1 online squabbles LOL
The more you answer him, the more you feed him. Most of it is just bait. I’m convinced he doesn’t even believe what he writes. The whole purpose of it is to make you angrily answer. That is what makes him feel accomplished. Don’t give him such a joy
I just want to talk about basketball… I’m not necessarily angry but disappointed. But thanks for the notice
This is so ridiculous. Of course the SEC has all those Quad One wins. They play each other. And have the benefit to win Quad one games. I am the Yale WYBC color guy and the Yale IHO writer. I have seen every game and also every UConn and Rutgers games, either in person or on tape. Yale goes, at worst 10-10 and probably 11-9 in the Big East and at worst 9-11 in the Big Ten with 5-6 Quad one wins. Don’t believe me. I spoke with an official who has done all leagues. Yale doesn’t have Quad One games because no one, no one, no one will play them. A UConn coach calls Yale a 70-30 game, could lose it 30% of the time so they don’t play Yale. Never will again under Hurley. Will Yale win Thursday? maybe. It will be tough on the boards, but Bez should lock-up Taylor. We shall see if John goes off. Nick is very tough. Like granite. Yale should be a 12 and should be playing Michigan in round one.
4 Likes
this is an excellent post and essentially how i see the game as well.
we have other problems (as a league) to worry about in this sport right now but the dearth of opportunities afforded to yale (and other midmajors) to get a quad 1 win on a neutral, home or in yale’s case even an away court is just a shame.
JJ did a nice job laying it out in his presser and really anytime he gets an audience but no one cares and the system with its flawed incentives perpetuates
Caring too much about “number of Q1 wins” is silly for several reasons (not the least of which is what you mention about “number of chances”), but one of the biggest is that it stratifies for no good reason. @Duke and @Liberty are both Q1 wins. Both would be difficult, sure, but not equally so.
As a side note, unequal scheduling opportunities is another thing that’s weighted heavily against mid-major resumes. It is really really hard to go undefeated in conference, especially against teams who know you well. Every team is going to have an off night once in a while, and every team is going to have a ridiculous shoot-them-out-of-the-gym game once in a while. If you’re P5, your cruddy games are more likely to come against name-brand teams (so no bad losses), and your good-luck games are too (so you get Q1 wins). Like you say, Yale is probably no worse than a bubble team in the BE, if for no other reason than we’d finally get some dang home games against P5 teams. (I’m still bummed that COVID stole the 2-for-1 Nate Oats promised us after Jordan transferred there.)
2 Likes
Rutgers , ask Pike about his last game at New Haven Coliseum against Yale.
we werent particularly good then and they hadnt become the juggernaut of today; but we put a scare into Calhoun and they never came back…
for the young we played UCONN most recently at the old New Haven Coliseum in 1990 when current Rutgers HC and one time Yale asst Steve Pikiell was a UCONN co-captain.
Petersen dribbled it off his foot down 1 if i recall with the ball to win it.
have a newspaper still somewhere with the NYT sport section headline “Yale scares Connecticut”
we later played them annually in Hartford for many years and occasionally Storrs but never New Haven.
UCONN started its annual run around that time to the sweet 16 and beyond.
had to check it. UCONN made it to the Elite 8 that year so that’s when it really got rolling in storrs
If it’s an excellent post, james, it also comes with an undeniable Yale bias. He says it’s ‘ridiculous’, but it’s the committee that makes quad/1 a point of emphasis in determining tournament structure. The thing I, personally, see as ‘ridiculous’ is calling A&M inferior.
i dont think anyone is saying that. i ,for one, think the sec is nails this year on a relative basis to really any other conference. whether that’s worthy of 14 bids or say 11 i dont know.
despite my professional pedigree in applying quantitative metrics with the objective to best evaluate and trade financial products; I also am aware of framing bias and think analytics is becoming highly commoditized with origins ironically in my home arena, the hedge fund space .
you now see it spreading in sports which in many ways was the last frontier in terms of inplementation of off the shelf tools and metrics we applied on Wall st in a much higher stakes big money game than sports 25+ yrs ago.
so, w/ regards to hoops i focus more on film, emerging trend shifts in analytical data, matchups and frankly the eye test in evaluating players coaches tendencies strategies and situations. I mostly just watch and coach a lot of basketball because i enjoy it and have the time to now do so…and at all levels. i write this because this is my process.
i think Jerry makes great points on all his intended fronts and in terms of the game …Yale is a decided underdog, the SEC is king this year but probabilities skew closer to 70/30 than 100/0 in terms of expected value outcome. these are my key assumptions. admittedly i have watched 50% of a&ms big home win over auburn. nothing more at this juncture.
i have attended live or watched ~65 sec games this year and without volunteering more have blood playing in the league right now.
this isnt to say it cant be a blowout in favor of a&m or a yale upset if things break the right way but my guess is vegas or jerry or iogy or whomever else i have read on this board has fhe handicapping about the way i do. i will watch some different film between now and gametime and might change my views
so for the record I am a momentum buyer of the SEC hype. that stock (the SEC) carries a very high multiple (expectations: see 14 bids) and it could very well disappoint when the tourney proves out.
i dont think so though i do of course hope Yale upsets or at the very least causes some consternation in college station.
2 Likes
I’m a 50-year Princeton Tiger fan and I’ll be rooting for your Dogs with gusto this week. (I went to Yale for grad school so I’ll claim some legit allegiance). I’ve been blessed to see the Tigers play in the NCAA tournament more than a dozen times, most of which were heartbreaking, agonizingly close losses to teams that most people thought Princeton didn’t deserve to be on the same court with–Nova, Cal, Kentucky, Notre Dame, Michigan State (game was a lot closer than the final score). I’ve seen victories against UNLV, AZ, and MO and a few games that didn’t end quite as well but were close for a half. Some of my greatest memories in life have been traveling for March Madness with my best bud from college.
I strongly encourage you all to break your piggy bank, book a flight, go ahead and pay outrageously for tix if you have to but get your fannies to the game. Go crazy. ENJOY it! If your team plays well, you won’t have to pay for post-game drinks–I’m still hung over from Tampa 2011 when the Tigers lost to KY on a last second shot. The Wildcat fans just kept buying me and my buddy drinks all night they were so blown away by the Ivy League school that could hoop.
antiU, if you can’t get excited about this Yale team playing in the tournament, you are just a troll and not a fan. (and FWIW, A&M only beat Rutgers by 4 points early in the year and Princeton topped the Scarlet Knights this year).
Go Bulldogs!
1 Like
great advice. i am likely going. we got our arse kicked when i played by penn or your princeton so have only been as a fan to 2016 and 2019.
i cant tell if i am bad luck or not by this evidence data so i am now torn. i am highly superstitious despite my former day job.
fwiw i write some passionate stuff on here but as a good buddy and neighbor of mine and former princeton student manager can attest… i got very obnoxious on princeton’s behalf durinf their sweet 16 surge.
it is the ivies against the world in march for this old head. #oneivy
Couldn’t agree with you more, James. I went nuts for your victories over Baylor and Auburn.
(I am also superstitious as hell and blame myself for 57-59 because I was wearing blue socks).
1 Like
i still remember where i was when i watched the mateen cleaves dagger from 30’+ to beat princeton in the round of 32.
that princeton could have gone to a final 4. goodrich is one of the best players i have ever seen in this league
for penn fans i remember where i was when anyonio mcdyess and jason caffey turned a close one into an nba dunk contest for Alabama.
i had so much respect for the guys on those ivy teams more less the more recent vintages.
Aside from rooting for IL teams for the obvious reasons of value alignment, etc, watching Yale knock off Baylor and Auburn in the NCAAs gave a very nice “Now you jerks know what we have to deal with!” vibe.
A&M will really lock up on D, and Williams is an old-school D-first, rebound-first kind of coach. But JP can hit shots even when seemingly locked up, and playing bully ball against the likes of Townsend and Aletan and Mbeng isn’t necessarily the easiest road to success. Obviously A&M should be favored, but Yale has a decent shot.
One of my Big Dance indicators of performance is blocked shots; it subjectively seems to me that successful teams at least keep up in that department, and especially after the other team gets an OR. A&M, Houston, Tennessee, etc. are the kinds of teams where on both ends the miss/rebound/block/recover/foul battles really matter to them. Especially if the refs are blowing the whistle for a lot of defensive foul calls on drives, being able to block shots when the driver gets near the rim is priceless.
1 Like
ESPN lists Yale as one of the “10 Most Improbable Upsets” with the following narrative:
(13) Yale vs. (4) Texas A&M
Upset chance: 22%
7:25 p.m. ET on Thursday
Just a year ago, Yale was in these exact shoes: a 13-seed against an SEC foe in the first round. Ask Bruce Pearl and Auburn how that went.
The Bulldogs’ backcourt is strong, with Ivy League Player of the Year and the conference’s three-time defensive player of the year Bez Mbeng paired with big-time shot-maker John Poulakidas. The Aggies’ best offense is their second (and, often, third) shot – they grab a ridiculous 42% of their own misses – so the Bulldogs will have to hold their own in that regard.
Though not nearly as improbable as Omaha knocking off your hometown Red Storm, wouldn’t you agree, Doctor?
What’s with your insistence that I am a New Yorker rooting for St John’s? Of course, I could ask what’s up with your entire shtick? Let’s talk basketball.
Fine, how do so see St. John’s doing in the BASKETBALL tournament?