Buzz is good, but (born and raised UVA fan) certainly beatable. I think we’d stand to benefit from the refs calling a pretty tight game.
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I listened to a Texas A&M podcast, where I learned that Yale doesn’t really look to score inside and focuses a lot on shooting the three. Personally, I hope those guys help Buzz put the scouting report together.
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i had a long chat with my guru Grok 3 this am. i cant post all of it bc its like 25 pages. but these are my favorite points he made.
NCAA Tournament game against Yale on Thursday, March 20, 2025, at 7:30 PM EST, you’ll want to focus on games that showcase their key players, tactical tendencies, and how they perform under pressure against varied opponents. Texas A&M, a 4-seed with a 22-10 record, has faced a tough SEC schedule and some notable non-conference foes this season, giving us a solid sample to analyze. Here are the games I’d recommend watching, along with why they’re valuable for scouting the Aggies ahead of Yale:
- Texas A&M vs. #11 Purdue (December 14, 2024) - Indy Classic
Why Watch: This 70-66 win over a ranked Purdue team highlights A&M’s ability to compete against a physical, defensively stout opponent—a profile somewhat similar to Yale, which plays disciplined and rebounds well. Wade Taylor IV (17 points) showed his scoring chops, while the Aggies’ top-ranked offensive rebounding (42%+ rate) was on display, grabbing 14 offensive boards. It’s a good look at their interior dominance and clutch play in a tight game.
Key Focus: How Henry Coleman III and Andersson Garcia control the glass, and how A&M’s defense holds up against a methodical offense. Purdue’s size tested them inside, which Yale might try to replicate. - Texas A&M vs. Texas (March 13, 2025) - SEC Tournament Second Round
Why Watch: This recent 94-89 overtime loss to Texas in the SEC Tournament (just six days before the Yale game) is the freshest data point. It exposes A&M’s vulnerabilities: poor 2-point shooting (near the bottom 20 nationally) and struggles defending dynamic guards (Texas’ Max Abmas torched them). Taylor (22 points) and Zhuric Phelps (18 points) carried the offense, but their perimeter defense faltered. Yale’s 3-point shooters like Poulakidas could exploit similar gaps.
Key Focus: A&M’s perimeter defense and late-game execution. Texas forced turnovers (A&M averages 12.5 per game), something Yale might try with their ball security. - Texas A&M vs. Auburn (March 4, 2025) - Regular Season
Why Watch: A&M’s 83-72 upset of then-#1 Auburn is their signature win, showing their ceiling. They shot efficiently (50% from the field), dominated the boards (16 offensive rebounds), and forced 15 turnovers with their top-10 defense. Taylor (20 points) and Coleman (double-double) were standout, while their depth shone with balanced scoring. This game reveals how lethal A&M can be when their physicality and hustle click.
Key Focus: Their rebounding edge and defensive intensity. Yale’s smaller lineup could struggle if A&M replicates this form. - Texas A&M vs. Missouri (March 15, 2025) - SEC Tournament Quarterfinals
Why Watch: This 67-64 win over Missouri shows A&M in a close, gritty game—a likely scenario vs. Yale. Phelps bounced back with 14 points on 60% shooting, and Solomon Washington added 17, highlighting their secondary scoring options. The Aggies’ defense held Missouri to 38% shooting, but their own offense sputtered at times (poor 3-point shooting). It’s a window into how they manage adversity.
Key Focus: Bench production and defensive resilience. Yale’s hot shooting could test A&M’s ability to stay composed. - Texas A&M vs. #21 Ohio State (November 15, 2024) - Regular Season
Why Watch: This 78-64 win early in the season against a ranked Ohio State team showcases A&M’s potential against a balanced opponent. Taylor (19 points) and the Aggies’ pressure defense (forced 17 turnovers) were key. Their rebounding (12 offensive boards) overwhelmed OSU, but their outside shooting was shaky. It’s a good baseline for their strengths against a tournament-caliber team.
Key Focus: How A&M leverages turnovers and rebounding to offset inconsistent shooting—critical against Yale’s low-turnover style.
What to Look For
Strengths:
Rebounding: A&M’s elite offensive rebounding (Coleman, Garcia) could punish Yale’s smaller frontcourt.
Defense: Their top-10 defense forces turnovers and clogs the paint, which might disrupt Yale’s flow.
Taylor IV: The senior guard is their go-to scorer and playmaker, especially in crunch time.
Weaknesses:
Shooting: Poor 2-point and 3-point percentages mean they rely heavily on second-chance points.
Perimeter D: Struggles against quick guards or hot shooters could let Yale’s Poulakidas loose.
Consistency: Losses like Texas show they can falter when the offense stalls.
Where to Find These Games
Check ESPN+ or SEC Network archives for full replays of the SEC games (Auburn, Texas, Missouri). The Purdue and Ohio State games might be on Big Ten Network or ESPN+ too. If full replays aren’t available, YouTube often has condensed highlights (10-15 minutes) that cover key plays and player performances.
Watching these five games gives you a comprehensive view: Purdue and Auburn for their peak performance, Texas and Missouri for recent pressure tests, and Ohio State for an early benchmark. Prioritize Texas (freshest), Auburn (best win), and Purdue (style similarity) if you’re short on time. What do you think—any specific A&M player you’re most curious about?
Thank you, Grok. That is good advice.
You’re welcome! Glad I could help. Enjoy breaking down those Texas A&M games, and let me know if you want to dive deeper into anything specific before tip-off on Thursday. Good luck scouting!
one more thing–if you had to distill the outcome into 3 key statistical variables what would they be? also please factor in the strengths and weaknesses each team has shown in the entirety of the season.
To distill the Yale vs. Texas A&M game outcome into three key statistical variables, while factoring in the season-long strengths and weaknesses of both teams, here’s what I’d focus on. These metrics capture the clash of styles—Texas A&M’s physical, rebounding-driven approach vs. Yale’s efficient, perimeter-oriented game—and align with the tendencies we’ve seen throughout 2024-25.
- Yale’s 3-Point Shooting Percentage
Why It Matters: Yale’s offense thrives on its elite 3-point shooting (38.5%, top 25 nationally). Players like John Poulakidas (19 PPG, ~40% from deep) and August Mahoney can stretch defenses thin. Texas A&M’s defense prioritizes the paint over the perimeter, often leaving shooters open (opponents shoot 34% from three against them, slightly above average). If Yale hits 40%+ from beyond the arc (say, 10-12 makes on 25-30 attempts), they can offset A&M’s rebounding edge and keep the game close or pull ahead.
Season Context: Yale’s 16-1 stretch since late December leans heavily on hot shooting nights (e.g., 14-for-26 vs. Brown in the Ivy title game). A&M, meanwhile, has been burned by shooters in losses like Texas (12-for-27 from three). A cold night (under 33%) likely spells doom for Yale against A&M’s physicality.
Threshold: Yale needs 38%+ (9-10+ makes) to win; below 33%, A&M’s defense suffocates them. - Texas A&M’s Offensive Rebounding Percentage
Why It Matters: A&M leads the nation with a 42%+ offensive rebounding rate, fueled by Henry Coleman III and Andersson Garcia. This is their lifeline, given their poor shooting (bottom 20 in 2-point FG%, sub-33% from three among power conference teams). Against Yale, who rebounds well defensively (73% rate, top 100), this battle decides how many second-chance points A&M generates. More possessions mean more chances to grind Yale down, even with missed shots.
Season Context: A&M’s dominance here shines in wins like Auburn (16 offensive rebounds) and Purdue (14), but they’ve struggled when limited (e.g., 8 vs. Texas in a loss). Yale’s disciplined rebounding held up against Ivy foes but hasn’t faced A&M’s SEC-level athleticism all year.
Threshold: A&M wins comfortably if they grab 40%+ of their misses (12-15 offensive rebounds); below 35%, Yale stays in it. - Turnover Margin
Why It Matters: Texas A&M’s top-10 defense forces 15+ turnovers per game, thriving on chaos (e.g., 17 vs. Ohio State). Yale, however, plays clean, averaging just 12.5 turnovers (top 50 nationally) with a low foul rate. This stat pits A&M’s pressure against Yale’s composure. If A&M flips turnovers into transition points (where Taylor IV excels), they widen the gap. If Yale protects the ball, they neutralize A&M’s extra possessions and keep their shooters in rhythm.
Season Context: A&M’s wins often correlate with +5 or better turnover margins (e.g., Missouri, +6), while losses like Texas (-4) show vulnerability when opponents stay steady. Yale’s ball security fueled their upset of Auburn last year and their Ivy run this season.
Threshold: A&M needs a +4 or higher margin to pull away; Yale wins if it’s even or better.
How They Interact
Yale’s Path: High 3-point% (40%+) + low turnovers (-2 or better) can overcome moderate A&M rebounding (35-40%). Think 75-70 Yale, with Poulakidas going off.
A&M’s Path: Strong rebounding (45%+) + turnover edge (+5) trumps decent Yale shooting (33-38%). Think 72-65 A&M, with Coleman and Taylor grinding it out.
Tipping Point: If Yale shoots well and limits turnovers, A&M’s rebounding might not be enough given their shooting woes.
These three—3-point accuracy, offensive rebounding, and turnovers—encapsulate the season-long identities: Yale’s precision vs. A&M’s hustle. I’d watch Yale’s first five 3-point attempts and A&M’s early rebounding tenacity to gauge the game’s direction. What do you think—any other stat you’d weigh heavily?
admittedly i didnt have the heart to tell Grok that August Mahoney will be unavailable on Thursday night.
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Wow, that’s the short version? One nit from me: I’m not sure the first five 3-point attempts will be a good gauge of the game’s direction. On Sunday against Cornell, it felt like there was a lid on Yale’s basket and Poulakidas in particular was missing in the first ten minutes. It was fun to watch him warming up for the second half. He stood on the 3-point line and kept shooting until he could sink five or more in a row and then he moved to another spot on the arc. His teammates kept feeding him the ball and he became increasingly confident. When the second half began, he resumed his great 3-point shooting from the warmup and Yale took a big lead. Overall, Yale was 9 of 12 in second half threes, which they needed because Cornell was 8 of 12.
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will be curious if we get any open looks to start.
i found a lot of comfort in that one aspect of the cornell 1h. poulakidas is never open per se but he did miss a few that were relatively so for him pre halftime.
they have long tweeners who theoretically can cover ground though relative to the personnel we see in the IL
that and the size of their guys vs ours. the roster listings always lie. if townsend is 6’7 i am 7’ for example
Jones always lists his post at 1st year weight it seems. samson is bigger and if you look at the photo of him and dudley at the ILT even more apparent he is a big dude
but i cant speak on them
The “Kill Shot” metric by Evan Miyakawa tracks 10-0 scoring runs for tournament teams!
pretty self-explanatory graphic, basketball is a game of runs and TAMU is a strong team that often goes on unanswered runs and does well to concede few.
If you can’t find Yale, they’re all the way on the right hand side, almost averaging one “kill shot” per game
Or that Max Abmas probably didn’t torch A&M the other day.
Just listened to Coach Jones’ presser today. Mostly stuff you’d expect, but I did have to laugh when an A&M guy asked whether Yale would have any idea how to guard Wade Taylor, because of how dynamic of a scorer he is.
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buddy, Wade Taylor shoots 38% from 2 and 33% from 3, let’s calm down a bit here
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I don’t think Wade Taylor would be in the top 3 of guards that Yale has played against in the Ivy alone
watched the aggie presser just now.
buzz took the smart route and used numbers instead of names to scout the yale players. had to slow it below 1.0 to follow him.
we wont sneak up on anyone this time. have to bring the A+ game!
as a side note, coleman and payne are grown men. coleman might be heavier than his listed 250
Another reason to watch UCSD-Michigan–could be a lot of runs.
Today is the big day. Keep TAMU to one shot as often as you can, don’t let Taylor or Phelps get hot, and you’re right where you wanna be.
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Not aggressive enough in the first 10.
Tough start. I’m not impressed by TAMU whatsoever but they’re hitting their jumpers after running zero offense.
Disappointing start for the Bulldogs. They look really tight.
Brutal with the turnovers. Who is this team in blue?
Mullin turnovers, letting them shoot over him, and then just kills himself on an ill advised block attempt.
Really want Yale to win but they need to pull it together!
Wow! The big fella blows the bunny. Just dunk the damn thing
Braithwaite has barely played minutes all year and now he’s breaking a press vs A&M. Not what we’re looking for ealy.
Crazy that it is this close.