Amid all the shirt-rending, today the Harvard women defeated Columbia, leaving PU and CU tied for league lead. Still possible to snag the #1 seed, which would mean not having to face CU or Harvard in the first round of the ILT.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think the Tigers would have been in control of their own destiny (for the #1 seed) regardless of the outcome of today’s Harvard/Columbia game… they still need a win at home next weekend (vs Columbia) and a win at Harvard on Feb 28.
Yes, what this result only changes is that now there is a triple-tie situation (the only realistic tie situation) if Princeton wins against Columbia and then looses at Harvard, something that doesn’t sound crazy at all to me. If these two games are 50/50, like they kind of look, Princeton has a 25% of claiming a solo title (winning both) ~25% of claiming a shared title (winning and then loosing), Columbia has a ~50% of a solo title (winning Princeton) and a ~25% of a shared title (loosing and hope Harvard wins), and Harvard has a ~25% of a shared title (Princeton winning and then winning against Princeton)
Not sure about that. If CU had won today, then lost to PU, and they tied at 13-1, the tiebreaking rules use NET rank. Currently CU is 42 and PU is 49. https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-women/d1/ncaa-womens-basketball-net-rankings.
Have not parsed the triple tie scenario, which I agree remains well within realm of possibility.
If that had happened, you would need to win against Harvard again to get to 13-1, so the situation is almost the same for Princeton. Win both and you get a solo title. Win against CU and you probably get at least a shared title
A significant objective is to get the best path in the ILT and autobid because we know the NCAA is not averse to dissing a second deserving ivy. First seed is not a guarantee but it means not having to face Harvard and CU successively (or for CU not facing PU and Harvard, etc.)
Not certain by any means, but if Columbia and Princeton tied at 13-1, the Tigers would likely have moved ahead of the Lions in the NET ranking with a strong finish to the season.
A 3-way tie at 12-2 will almost certainly favor Harvard (better NET ranking).
I would agree with you any other year but this one. Up to yesterday, all major bracketology analysis (ESPN, CBS, NYT, HerHoopsStats) except CollegeSportMadness, had both Columbia and Harvard in. Two of them (CBS and NYT), had also Princeton in, which would mean all 3 are in. And most of these analysis didn’t give Columbia a bid last year, so they are usually biased towards Power 4 teams.
Ivy League Women’s Basketball Outlook (via Her Hoops Stats Analytics)
- Harvard is favored in all remaining games, including a 65% chance vs. Princeton and 90%+ in the other three.
- Columbia is heavily favored (95%+ in three games) but is a slight underdog to Princeton (42%). A 3-1 finish is most likely, but 4-0 and the No. 1 seed remain within their control.
- Princeton is an underdog at Harvard but favored in all other games, including vs. Columbia. A 3-1 finish is the most probable outcome, which would result in a three-way tie.
NET & Postseason Implications
- If Harvard finishes 4-0, they likely secure the best NET ranking.
- Columbia and Princeton are too close to call on NET, with their final NET positions depending on all four games.
- To be in serious at-large NCAA consideration, they will all need strong wins down the stretch.
- Any of the three missing the NCAA Tournament should still receive a WBIT invite.
This all looks like there is going to be a 3-way tie, which means Harvard will be seed 1. In that case, I see Columbia and Princeton having almost the same NET ranking and chances for an at-large bid.
We can get into the situation in which the second bid is decided in favor of who wins a potential semifinal Columbia-Princeton, which means that the semifinal might end up being a more important game than the final for March madness aspirations
I agree with that assessment, but I still think the base case and most likely scenario is that the IL only gets 1 team in. Last year was an exception because Megan bitched and moaned (no disrespect intended), but with Columbia’s poor showing last year I dont think lightening will strike twice with a 12-2 regular season IL team. The only was in is to win the tournament.
Hate to say it but I agree. In Griffith’s campaign to get a second Ivy in she basically dissed the SEC, then had to play one of those 8, 9 teams in a play-in game and lost. Not a good way to justify your rant. Had Columbia won and made a good showing in the field of 64, things might have looked better for this year.
I assume moving ahead in NET is possible in such a case, but note that PU defeated Harvard already yet is well behind it in NET at the moment.