3 games left for each team is 4,096 possible scenarios each for the men and women. I’ve put a spreadsheet together articulating all scenarios which you can sort/filter etc. A few of the scenarios rely on NET as the tiebreaker – in such cases ties are currently just broken alphabetically.
Since I have a model for MBB, the scenarios are sorted by from most to least likely. Unfortunately I don’t have a WBB model so there is no inherent order to the WBB scenarios.
Perhaps some point later in the week I’ll try to put together a concise summary of these, but in the meantime hopefully this is helpful for the time being.
On the women’s side, interesting all the women’s teams are still in the mix - Penn has 2974 paths and Yale has 8 of the 4096. Probability wise, Penn currently is above 73% given that Penn is an 80% favorite over Dartmouth and Columbia is a 95% favorite over Brown.
Brown improved 6 NET ranking spots to 178 from 184 with their almost upset of Harvard - and now are only 13 behind Penn which remain flat at 165.
It is hard to move NET at this point in the season:
Harvard went to 34 from 32
Columbia remained flat at 42
Princeton remained flat at 50.
Three teams in the NCAA is still in play, but Princeton likely needs to win Ivy Madness or have a 15-20 point win in their opening round match up and have some luck…
Assuming the remainder of the regular season goes to scratch, I believe Harvard is in the NCAA, regardless of Ivy Madness … the Crimson likely do not fall below a 40 NET.
If Princeton beats Harvard and Columbia in Ivy Madness, the question will be does Columbia’s NET fall bellow 48 and likely WBIT bound? All the more reason for Columbia to maintain and try to improve on the 42 NET - would expect the Lions to try and win all remaining games by 20-30 points.
Do you have the percentages for the women’s #1 seed? Seems that Princeton’s chances are slim to none since they don’t hold the edge in any tie-breaker scenarios with Columbia.
Seems like they make it in 400 of the 4,096 scenarios. Those cases are all pretty unlikely, they require Columbia to lose at least 2 of 3 remaining games. Unfortunately, I don’t have a model to order the relatively likelihood of these 4,096 scenarios like I do for MBB and give you a more precise answer.
Maybe I can hack something together using #s from Torvik WBB later this week.
You have both Torvik and HerHoopStats, which are both pretty good rankings. I think Torvik is usually slightly more consistent.
Anyway, I don’t think in the women case is going to give much inside, as things are more or less decided already. I expect it gives something like
Columbia first with a 95%, second with a 5%
Harvard second with a 51%, third with a 45%, first with a 4%
Princeton third with a 55%, second with a 44%, first with a 1%
Penn is 4th with a 50%
Brown is 4th with a 45%
Cornell is 4th with a 5%
Darmouth and Yale are virtually out (with a chance of like 0.1% of getting in)
Second and third place will most likely be decided next weekend, and in case of a tie is almost guaranteed that Harvard will be 2nd, although it doesn’t really matter. A tie for fourth should be super likely between Penn and Brown, and would be decided with NET ranking. They are close enough that it might depend a lot on the actual scores of the remaining matches
If Harvard loses to Princeton this week and again in Ivy Madness I can’t see them getting an at-large. Definitely if they sweep those (and win everything else, they needed a last-minute shot to beat Brown last weekend), maybe with one.
Most fun scenario by far is Harvard wins this weekend, Princeton wins the Ivy tourney. Columbia and Harvard are both probably first four in or out in that world; it’s hard to imagine 3-bid-Ivy coming with such close calls but I’d take either of their profiles over Columbia last year.
Given the wins that Washington and Virginia Tech just pulled out today, I think is really hard for Princeton if they don’t win Ivy Madness, even if they win next weekend. Their resume is weeker than these two teams and all others considered to be in. I think Columbia is in if they finish 13-1 and win their semifinal. Winning the conference, making it to the final and their resume should be enough for at least a last four. Harvard might drop out of the tournament if they loose both to Princeton next weekend and on the potential semifinal game. The only realistic chance for a 3-bid right now I think implies:
Harvard winning against Princeton next weekend, maybe even convincingly, so that they conserve the at-large everyone believes they hold up to now.
Princeton winning Ivy Madness.
Columbia winning convincingly the remaining 3 games + the semifinal, and putting a fight in the final, not being a blow-out final win from Princeton.
If this happens, the 3-bid scenario should be a realistic possibility (both Harvard and Columbia would have strong enough resumes compared to Virginia Tech, Washington, and Saint Joseph’s. On top of that, there shouldn’t be any surprises like Richmond and South Dakota St (or even Fairfield and UNLV) not winning their corresponding outright spots. Every other combination makes it very unlikely, if not impossible
The most notable part of the conversation is that we can have a serious debate on the Ivies having three potential NCAA bids … the quality of Ivy Women’s basketball is very high.