WBB NCAA chances

Our chances of making it to the tournament are better than they have ever been. This teams looks capable of putting pressure on any team in the country except the clear TOP7 (UCLA, SC, TEX, ND, USC, UCONN, LSU) through a full court press and a good Riley day. But I only see two clear ways of getting in and a third remote one:

  1. An at-large bid via 1 more win against Princeton or Harvard. This would give us enough of a good resume to get in regardless of ivy madness, given how weak the bubble is this year.
  2. Winning Ivy madness, which I feel is more realistic than ever. Last two years we were way worse than Princeton in defense which made the difference, this year we are not.
  3. Princeton or Harvard winning everything left convincingly, including the final against us, and us getting a Last Four spot, like last year.

There is a small possibility that all three teams make it, but if I had to bet I would say that only two will.

Does #1 assume we go 13-1 in the league, with the loss likely coming against Princeton or Harvard, followed by losing in the league tournament?

Yes, it’s pretty clear than more than ever this year’s league is a matter of 3 teams (Columbia, Princeton, Harvard) and the rest are too far away to have any reasonable chances for a potential upset. If the win is against Princeton this guarantees a solo #1 place and 1st seed. The other case means it would be on Princeton to win at Harvard and again share the league title with us. This also means that the #1 seed will be decided by NET ranking, which looks like is going to be a 50/50.

Makes sense. Win the league only, and hope for the best or win the tournament. I don’t see the league getting 2 at-large bids.

I don’t believe securing two at-large bids for the NCAA Tournament is out of the question this season. Last year, Columbia earned an at-large bid with a 57 NET - two years ago, however, a 47 NET Columbia missed out - and as of today:

Harvard sits at NET 35
Columbia is at NET 42
Princeton is at NET 45

If these teams continue to dominate the bottom five of the Ivy League by 15+ points per game and keep their head-to-head matchups highly competitive they should all remain in the mix and on the bubble —aside from the ever-present Power 4 bias in at-large selections.

At a minimum, any of these teams that miss the NCAA Tournament should be strong candidates for the WBIT (Women’s Basketball Invitation Tournament).

The Ivy Madness Factor

One major wildcard remains: Ivy Madness If the 4th seed wins the tournament or makes the finals, it would shake things up.

I don’t think it is out of the question. But it is a quite remote possibility because we are 3 teams that will play against each other and fighting for the same last 5 at-large bids (the rest is almost decided). For this to happen we will need close fighting between us, no surprises and most likely Harvard not winning Ivy Madness.

Apart from that, we need that those few teams we are competing with do not pull out any confident wins or an upset. I would pay close attention to Oregon, Nebraska, George Mason, Louisville, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Washington, St Joseph’s and Colorado (this is the current order from better to worst positioned in my opinion). Special case is the Atlantic10 conference, in a similar situation than us with Richmond already in and 2 contenders (George Mason and St Joseph’s), who still have to play Richmond in league play.

Last years Columbia’s NET I always had the feeling that was totally off, we were within top50 for sure. But I guess seeing Abby Hsu in March Madness was part of the reason of us getting in.

I would completely ignore the wildcard. If the 4th seed wins this Ivy Madness, it would be the craziest thing that has happened in decades.

Small update. Bracketology sites are divided in opinion regarding 1 or 2 at-large bids:

  • ESPN gives Columbia winner of Ivy Madness, Harvard (last four) in and Princeton (first four) out
  • NYTimes gives Columbia winner of Ivy Madness, Harvard (seed 8) in and Princeton (last four) in
  • CBS gives gives Columbia winner of Ivy Madness, Harvard (last four) in and Princeton (last four) in
  • HerHoopStats gives Princetion winner of Ivy Madness, Columbia (last four) in and Princeton (first four) out
  • CollegeSportsMadness gives Columbia winner of Ivy Madness, Harvard (first four) out and Princeton (first four) out

So from the 5 main sources, two give 2 at-large, two give 1 at-large, and one gives 0 at-large