Given the special situation we have this year, driven by the constant improvement of the Ivy League in women’s basketball with respect to the overall national level, I want to open a discussion/bet in terms of how many bids we will have and how are our chances to get 3 teams into march madness. It is obvious at this point that Harvard, Columbia and Princeton are at a level of basketball that is hard to not notice at a national level outside of the Big 4. However, a long-standing bias towards the big leagues has made almost impossible for any league outside of the Big 4 (old Big 5) to aspire to have 3 teams in the tournament (even 2 teams has been a rare thing these past years). Could we finally have 3 Ivy teams in march madness this time? To show that this is not just a dream but an actual possibility, this is what Charlie Creme wrote today for the ESPN Braketology:
The past two days are a perfect example of why there has been little movement in and out of the field. The list of teams with a legitimate claim to a spot was already shorter than typical; then, those just on the outside looking in (Saint Joseph’s, Colorado, George Mason) lost. Which is why Virginia Tech can absorb a home loss to Stanford – the Hokies’ third setback in three games – and remain a bubble team. And there hasn’t been a team that has been playing better right now, or that has a better résumé or a solid recent win to take the spot Virginia Tech left vulnerable. So, the situation now leaves the door open for bid stealers that don’t have a truly tournament-worthy case. Consider UNLV, Columbia, James Madison and Fairfield: In most years, these teams would have no chance of making the NCAA tournament without their conferences’ automatic bids. This is not most years on the bubble.
Their prediction looks like this right now (with Columbia predicted to win Ivy madness and getting the auto-bid):
It is no so unrealistic that all 3 are in. I think that if they would try to place Columbia here right now (imagine either Harvard or Princeton win Ivy madness), it would be somewhere between Harvard and Princeton, most likely above Virginia Tech. And I feel that if Princeton wins against Harvard (the Q1 win that they need), it should move them up a couple of spots, giving them an at-large bid (even more if they also win against Columbia). There is no much risk coming from teams below Princeton, as their resumes are considerably weaker.
3 - No way. Committee always embraces NET right up until it produces a result they don’t like.
2 - Maybe. As someone pointed out earlier, Columbia’s loss after making a stink about the SEC is probably not going to sit well with the Committee - not just as to CU, but perhaps any second Ivy.
Quick update. A lot of things have happened for good. Contenders for the lasts at-large bids have had though losses that basically eliminates most of their chances of getting in (George Mason, Saint Joseph’s, South Florida, Villanova, for example). This means that basically the cut is set by only one team: Virginia Tech (who just lost last night to a NET 70 team Boston College). Teams like Washington that were in by a small margin have picked up considerable wins that solidified their chances.
This effectively leaves the bubble with 3 contenders for 2 spots. The two IL leagues that don’t get the auto bid (between Harvard, Princeton and Columbia) and Virginia Tech. Right now, ESPN bracketology leaves VT out due to their recent loss. The final decision might depend a lot on what happens tonight at Cambridge, and what happens in the tournament. If Princeton doesn’t win tonight, I think the only chance is winning the auto-bid, but with a win tonight they might have enough to get in. I see the chance of being a 3-bid leave more life than ever
Downside of Princeton winning tonight is it eliminates the most likely 3-bid scenario (Harvard winning tonight + Princeton winning tourney). Upside is it means any outcome of the tournament now leaves the other two teams legitimately on the bubble, as long as none of the three loses to anyone outside the group.
Virginia Tech just lost their first game of the ACC Tournament to Georgia Tech. This puts them on a really though scenario for their NCAA aspirations, as they have 4 wins over their last 11 games, with tough loses to non-tournament teams like Syracuse, Stanford and Boston College. Really good scenario for the IL, as the 3-bid dream is more alive than ever!
There’s a pretty strong consensus among the bracketologists that you’re looking at VT, Minnesota, and the Harvard-Princeton loser for two spots, with maybe Columbia falling down into that mix with a loss and perhaps St Joe’s sneaking in from below if they make the A-10 final.
But to keep it that way we need Richmond and South Dakota St to win their conference tournaments - either one of them probably gets in at-large and bumps one of those teams out. Nobody else can really get into the conversation without something really shocking happening (Marquette or Seton Hall beating UConn or Colorado making a deep B12 run).
But the women’s committee especially seems to surprise us every year (nobody had Columbia getting in last year), so there are probably some error bars here.
Well, first surprise on the field: Richmond lost to Saint Joseph’s in the A10 semifinal. This means that whomever wins the A10 will steal a bid. This, added to the recent loss of Minnesota and their terrible last month, puts basically 4 teams in contention for the last 2 spots: The two Ivies that do not win, VT and Minn (they fought for 3 spots before). This should stay like that as long as UConn or Creighton win the Big East, and South Dakota St wins the Summit.
As it happened last year with Abbey Hsu, I think seeing Turner in the NCAA Tournament puts Harvard virtually in. The rest will depend on Ivy Madness, which makes this year’s tournament more exciting than ever.
Harvard should be in even with a loss to Princeton, unless they game is a blowout.
Princeton should be in with a another win vs Harvard… 3-0 vs a Top 40 NET team will be tough to ignore by the committee. I think they have a shot with close loss vs Harvard… Minnesota and Virginia Tech did not end their seasons on a strong note (and exited their conference tournaments early), which will help any of the three get an at-large bid.
South Dakota St is up by 10 at halftime in their conference final… a win by them will also give hope for a 3-bid Ivy.
South Dakota State won and George Mason beat St Joe’s by 15 (margin was not closer than 6 in the final quarter), so the stars are lined up for a 3-bid Ivy.
The big east also didn’t give any surprises, as UConn and Creighton will be playing the final tomorrow. So this should be it for the bid stealers. 2 spots between 2 Ivy’s, Minnesota and VT. I would think Minnesota is virtually out as their run over the last 10 games is terrible and they are 0-8 in Q1 matches. But I also thing Princeton might need to win the tournament to get in. We will see next Sunday
