Apologies for the delay in getting this out for 2025-26 season and thanks to @Mbaprof for the nudge. Ended up just getting my model working for this year as that ended up being less work than using a better model like KenPom or T-Rank.
Here’s how the simulations shake out halfway through the season. Yale/Harvard in pretty good shape and then everyone else except brown in roughly same tier. Yale still has presumed edge for 1-seed despite currently losing tiebreaker to Harvard, but a lot closer than it would have been if I had run this before yesteday.
Thanks, Luke. Thought I was losing my sanity looking at the other “odds” calculator showing 3-4 teams with better odds than 4-3 teams that had beaten them.
I don’t know too much about that site but I’d be a bit skeptical as well. I expect that they are applying some generic tiebreaking rule which can make a big difference when so many teams are clustered.
Cornell also has H2H losses vs. Penn, Columbia, and Dartmouth. So yes even though though currently hold tiebreaker vs. Princeton, game behind and not as well situated vs. other teams in that same cluster.
Penn has a pretty clear course for the ILT. They have 5 home games (P, C,C,D,H) and 2 away games (Y,B). If they win their home games or lose 1 and beat B on the last day, they should punch their ticket to Ithaca. All those home games are winnable and no other team plays more than 4 home games in the second half of the round robin.
With a win this Saturday at Dartmouth, I have to think Harvard is a virtual lock for the ILT. Princeton is also a surprising candidate. They are the only Ivy that hasn’t lost a home game and they have 1 road win (Columbia). The game this Saturday at the Palestra is huge for both P’s.
The winners of Cornell/Columbia, Princeton/Penn will have an advantage to make the ILT. If Dartmouth loses, they have an uphill battle to make it with home games v Yale, Cornell and Brown and road games @Columbia and the P’s. If Dartmouth wins, their road to the ILT is much easier, likely only needing 3 wins in their final 6 games.
The major barrier for Penn right now is not having a win over Harvard or Yale, which could impact some tiebreakers. If they can’t manage that in the second half, and it’s not likely to happen at all against Yale, their best hope is for Dartmouth to do really well (other when they play Penn). Penn beating both Dartmouth and Cornell in the second half will clinch head to head tiebreakers.
Cornell and Penn the obvious movers from this weekend.
Cornell/Penn/Princeton/Dartmouth/Columbia H2H:
Cornell: W (Princeton) L (Dartmouth, Penn) Split (Columbia)
Penn: W (Cornell, Dartmouth) L (Columbia) Split (Princeton)
Princeton: W (Columbia) L (Cornell, Dartmouth) Split (Penn)
Dartmouth W (Cornell, Princeton) L (Columbia, Penn) Split (–)
Columbia W (Dartmouth, Penn) L (Princeton Split (Cornell)
